Wang Minghong, a reporter from the Securities Times
The near futureJeopardytelevisionshowYi Fangda Fund, Jingshun Great Wall Fund and other public offerings of a number of products issued an intensive notice of premium risk. The reporter combed found that the current market QDII (qualified domestic institutional investors) fund premium products are mainly concentrated in crude oil, Japanese stock market and other related fields, but with the A-share, Hong Kong stock market pick up, the previous capital speculation by the Nikkei ETF, the United States 50ETF and other QDII products heat down, fund premium narrowed one after another.
May 21, Jingshun Great Wall Fund announcement, Invesco Great Wall technology market capitalization weighted ETF (traded open index fund) recent secondary market trading price is significantly higher than the fund net value, there is a large premium, this reminds investors to pay attention to the secondary market trading price premium risk, investors may suffer heavy losses if they invest blindly.
The reporter noted that since the beginning of this year, Invesco Great Wall NASDAQ technology market capitalization weighted ETF has issued a premium risk warning announcement for the 55th time. As of May 22, the premium rate of the fund product was 10%.Jeopardytelevisionshow.7%.
At present, the product with the highest premium risk on the market is Yifangda crude oil A RMB, with a premium of 16.57%. On May 22nd, Yi Fangda Fund announced that recently, the secondary market trading price of Class A RMB share of Yi Fangda crude Oil Securities Investment Fund (QDII) is significantly higher than the net value of the fund, which reminds investors to pay attention to the risk of trading price premium in the secondary market. Prior to this, on May 15, Southern Fund announced that the secondary market trading price of Class A fund share of Southern Hang Seng linked Fund fluctuated greatly, so investors were asked to pay close attention to the net value of the fund.
Reporter statistics found that since the beginning of this year, the QDII Fund has issued nearly 500 premium risk warning announcements, up to a total of more than 60 times this year. Among the more than 400 announcements, the investment themes or regions of the products mainly come from crude oil and Japanese stock markets. Take Huaxia Nomura Nikkei 225ETF as an example, its premium risk warning announcement has reached 64 times during the year, and Yifangda crude oil A RMB, ICBC and Nikkei 225ETF also have more than 30 hints.
People in the fund industry said that the circulation of crude oil funds is generally small. For example, the market value of RMB in circulation of Yifangda crude Oil An is only 40 million yuan. Due to foreign exchange quotas and other reasons, many funds are in a state of suspension of over-the-counter purchase, and funds can only be traded on the floor, which will also push up on-the-floor prices, which is an important reason for the recent high premium of crude oil funds.
For the risk of a substantial premium of the QDII fund, Hu Chao, general manager of the International Investment Department of the Western profit Fund, reminded in an interview that the net value of the QDII fund is its intrinsic value, and the fluctuation of the secondary market price around the intrinsic value is the basic logic of its operation. The substantial premium is not normal and will eventually return to net value, and investors should invest rationally. Hu Chao believes that when QDII funds invest in overseas markets, it is difficult for domestic investors to track market trends in real time, and at the same time, they also involve fluctuations in exchange rates of different currencies, resulting in high uncertainty, so they should focus on the medium-and long-term investment value of the markets or assets invested by QDII funds. The global economy has different economic cycles, and domestic investors should also diversify their investments in QDII funds. Through the layout of QDII funds in different markets or different asset classes, global asset allocation can be achieved to a certain extent, thus achieving the goal of risk diversification.
However, the reporter noted that as the A-share and Hong Kong stock market gradually warmed up, the current market has undergone great changes, a large number of QDII funds returned to Hong Kong stocks, investors on the previous speculation of the Nikkei ETF, the United States 50ETF and other fund products investment enthusiasm declined, QDII fund premium significantly narrowed.
According to Wind statistics, as of May 22, there were only three products with a premium rate of more than 5 per cent for QDII funds, a sharp drop from the first quarter. Take Yi Fangda MSCI US 50ETF, whose premium soared to 43.47 per cent on January 25th and fell to 1.96 per cent as of May 22nd. The highest closing premium of the Nomura Nikkei 225ETF, once more than 20 per cent, has fallen to 2.65 per cent. It can be found that, compared with the first quarter of this year, the premium rate of QDII funds has dropped significantly as a whole.
In an interview with reporters, Hu Chao said that the main reasons for the sharp decrease in the premium rate of QDII funds are: first, the rebound in US inflation, the sharp decline in the expectation of Fed interest rate cuts, the shock of US stocks, the sharp depreciation of the yen, the increase in risks in foreign markets, and the decline of investors' preference for QDII funds. Secondly, the central government continued to introduce the policy of stabilizing growth. China's GDP growth reached 5.3% in the first quarter, exceeding market expectations. IMF, Asian Development Bank, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and other international financial institutions have all raised their forecasts for China's economic growth in 2024, and Chinese stocks have become more attractive. Finally, the Hong Kong stock market has rebounded sharply since the end of April, and some investors who have been concerned about foreign stocks for a long time have turned to Hong Kong stocks, and the popularity of QDII funds has declined.
"against the backdrop of the recent strong dollar index, the sustained and rapid depreciation of the yen exchange rate has forced part of the global allocation of funds to deal with 'risk aversion'. Under multiple factors, the Hong Kong stock market has become a better 'safe haven'." Zhu Fan, investment manager of Debang Fund, said.
