SourceZyngaholdempokerFinancial federation

The contents of the research report are as follows

1. Why didn't you see MLF cut interest rates?

The results of a Reuters survey showZyngaholdempoker84% of investors expect MLF interest rates to remain unchanged in may. The interest rate for operation today (May 15) is 2.Zyngaholdempoker.50%, which is in line with the expectations of most investors.

However, some investors believe that social finance performed weakly in April and that MLF interest rates should be cut to stimulate financing. We believe that the decline in year-on-year growth of social finance is partly due to the "squeeze" of financial data. As much of the "moisture" that has been squeezed out is also precipitated or occupied by inefficiency in the early stage, and does not form a real support for the real economy, the decline in financial data caused by "squeezing water" does not mean the weakening of financial support entities, and there is no need to immediately use powerful policy tools such as MLF interest rate cuts.

In addition, the decline in year-on-year growth in social finance has also been dragged down by a slowdown in government bond issuance. Net financing of government bonds in April was-98.4 billion yuan, down 561 billion yuan from March and 553.2 billion yuan less than the same period last year. It should be pointed out that the slowdown in the financing progress of government bonds and the resulting decline in the year-on-year growth rate of social finance do not mean a decline in the financing demand of the real economy. An additional 1 trillion yuan of treasury bonds were issued in the fourth quarter of last year, and most of the funds raised are carried forward this year, which can better meet the current demand for the use of funds, which is also an important factor in the lack of government bond financing in recent years.

Moreover, the total amount of government bond financing this year is relatively large, and less issuance at present means that more will be issued later. We expect government bond issuance to accelerate in the second quarter, with considerable net financing for the whole year, providing a stable support for the year-on-year growth rate of social finance.

Some investors believe that the current real interest rate is high and that the MLF interest rate should be reduced in order to lower the real interest rate. We believe that the real interest rate is the difference between the nominal interest rate and the inflation rate. Lower prices will raise the real interest rate, and vice versa. It should be noted that the operation of low prices in the early stage is both phased and structural.

On the one hand, even if nominal interest rates remain unchanged, real interest rates will fall as prices rise moderately. In fact, CPI rose 0% in April compared with the same period last year.Zyngaholdempoker.3%, and its filter value is already in the channel of moderate recovery.

On the other hand, the real interest rates felt by different industries are quite different. For example, the market price of rebar (HRB400E, Φ 20mm) fell 6.0 per cent in early May compared with the first ten days of January, while the price of aluminum ingots (A00) with new kinetic properties rose 6.2 per cent over the same period. If these structural differences are ignored in regulation and control, interest rates in some industries or sectors are likely to be too low, which will reduce the momentum of structural adjustment and intensify inward competition.

Some investors believe that ultra-long-term special treasury bonds are about to be issued, and bond interest rates should be guided to lower in order to save government financing costs. We believe that the interest rate is not only related to the government financing cost, but also plays an important role in regulating the macro-economic operation and has an extensive impact on the whole economic activities. The coordination of monetary policy and fiscal policy does not mean blindly lowering the bond market interest rate during the issuance of government bonds. One of its meanings is to create a suitable liquidity environment for the issuance of government bonds. For example, if future government bond issuance disturbs the liquidity of the banking system, then the monetary authorities are more likely to use a variety of tools such as OMO, MLF, reserves and so on to maintain the reasonable abundance of liquidity in the banking system.

Other investors believe that the cost of bank debt should be reduced by lowering MLF interest rates. We believe that the impact of MLF interest rate cuts on the cost of bank debt is relatively limited. As of the end of April this year, the RMB funding source of deposit-based financial institutions was 357 trillion yuan, while the average monthly operating volume of MLF since January 23 was 540 billion yuan. From the point of view of reducing the cost of debt, the effectiveness of guiding the downward real interest rate of deposits and reducing the issuance cost of active debt instruments such as CD is obviously higher.

2. Risk hint

Irrational expectations trigger rapid market fluctuations.