Source: per Sutra

Affected by factors such as geopolitical policy and the expectation of the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.Jili777comphSpot gold stood above US $2440 an ounce today, breaking the April high and setting an all-time high. It is worth noting that the related industry ETF-- gold stock ETF (517400) hit an all-time high since listing, up 6%; gold fund ETF (518800) rose nearly 3%, also a record high.

Today, under the impact of the news that spot gold hit an all-time high, a number of gold stocks rose hugely, many gold stocks rose by the daily limit, and the gold stock ETF (517400) was as high as 1.Jili777comph.118 yuan, a new high; gold fund ETF (518800), an intraday high of 5.519 yuan, also set a record high.

On the news side, geopolitical risks in the Middle East are resurfacing. In addition, in recent trading days, traders have increased their bets that the Fed could cut interest rates as early as September. Gold was supported by a fall in the dollar and a rise in US debt after last week's data showed that US inflation slowed more than expected in April. Hedge funds trading Comex futures raised bullish bets on gold to a three-week high in the week ended May 14, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

From the capital point of view, more than a dozen gold concept stocks according to the data have received northward funds to increase their positions. Zijin Mining and Yintai Gold received a net purchase of 247 million yuan and 121 million yuan respectively last week. China gold bought net for seven consecutive days, accumulating a net purchase of 124 million yuan.

Fundamentally, overall gold consumption in Q1 maintained growth in 2024. According to the China Gold Council, national gold consumption in the first quarter was 308.905 tons, an increase of 5.94 percent over the same period last year. Of this total, gold jewelry was 183.92 tons, down 3.0 percent from the same period last year; gold bars and coins were 106.32 tons, up 26.77 percent from the same period last year. The gold consumption structure shows that the gold consumption of Q1 is mainly driven by investment. Due to the surge in risk aversion demand, physical gold investment has received higher attention, and the consumption of gold bars and coins with relatively low premium has risen sharply.

According to the latest research report released by Guojin Securities, the growth of the cost of self-production of gold stocks slowed in 2023, indicating that the performance of gold stocks may show strong growth in 2024 with the expected rise in gold prices and the stability of cost control. At present, the market expectation of gold price rise has not been fully reflected in the market value of gold stocks, which means that the sector has greater "make-up" potential, which is expected to usher in a significant rally.

Everbright Securities reported that the recent rapid rise in gold prices is mainly due to the loosening of liquidity expectations of the Federal Reserve and the downward interest rate on US bonds has pushed up investment demand. In the short term, the expected volatility of interest rate cuts may lead to high fluctuations in gold prices. However, from a trend point of view, the US economy has cooled, the supply of US debt has fallen, and the interest rate reduction cycle has moved backward but is still expected to open, indicating a strong downward trend in US bond interest rates and opening up room for gold prices. In addition, in the context of anti-globalization, frequent geo-conflicts, swaying US dollar credit system, superimposed hedging demand, and promoting the central bank to continue to buy gold will become the support in the medium-and long-term dimensions of gold prices.

Caitong Securities said that under the influence of macro uncertainties such as geographical conflicts superimposed by the central bank's demand for gold, gold prices are expected to remain strong in the medium to long term. On the one hand, the stabilization of gold prices is expected to lead to the release of some consumption of rigid demand for gold jewelry, and terminal consumption of key holiday nodes such as Qixi Festival, Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day is expected to resume. On the other hand, the superimposed gold price is expected to support in the medium and long term, and gold consumption is expected to be partially repaired in the second half of the year.

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