Newsletter summary

From January to February 2024, domestic tin production decreased by 2%.77spinscasino.43%, the shutdown of the Myanmar concentrator affected the supply of raw materials. On the demand side, new energy vehicles, home appliance exports and electronics sectors performed well, but electronic orders fell in April. Tin inventory is on the high side, Shanghai tin prospect is cautious, so it is recommended to buy hedging. Risks include weak terminal demand and a high interest rate environment.

Text of news flash

[tin mine production decline and concentrator shutdown lead to tight supply] in early 2024, China's tin concentrate production fell 2.43% compared with the same period last year, and the concentrator in the WA region of Myanmar was shut down on a large scale, and the market is expected to find it difficult to resume production before May, which may lead to a reduction in tin ore exports to China.

[domestic smelting enterprises gradually resume production, output increases] in the first quarter of 2024, domestic tin ingot production increased by 2.77% compared with the same period last year, and increased by 40.01% to 19400 tons in March. Most smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi resumed production, but future production growth may be limited by mine-end supply.

[new energy vehicle policy stimulates, household appliances and electronics sector demand is significant] "detailed rules for the implementation of Automobile Trade-in subsidy"77spinscasinoThe introduction of new energy vehicles has a positive impact, the export performance of home appliances is eye-catching, the electronic plate has obviously recovered since the beginning of this year, and the outlook for terminal demand of tin varieties is optimistic as a whole.

[inventory level is high, tin price rise faces challenge] Tin variety inventory level is relatively high, domestic social inventory rose 1800 tons to 17400 tons in April, LME inventory increased by 235 tons to 4800 tons, despite the good performance of the electronic sector, high inventories may put pressure on tin prices.

[market outlook and operation suggestions] at present, there are great interference factors in mine supply, and demand outlook is relatively preferred. In terms of operational strategy, it is recommended to buy hedging at a bargain, but in view of the adverse impact of high inventory on tin prices, investors are advised to control their positions. Sn2406 contracts can buy hedging between 230000 yuan / ton and 235000 yuan / ton.

[risk reminder] it is necessary to pay attention to the risk of continued weakness in terminal demand and the maintenance of a high interest rate environment for too long.