Market review and analysis

Review of the primary market

Last week, the issuance of treasury bonds, local bonds and policy financial bonds in the primary market was 175.3 billion, 72.5 billion and 175 billion respectively, with net financing of-182.4 billion, 37.5 billion and 161.9 billion respectively. A total of 499 credit bonds were issued, with a total size of 446.6 billion and a net financing of 109.4 billion. No new convertible bonds will be issued for the time being.

Review of the secondary market

Interest rates went down first and then went up last week. The main influencing factors include: central bank statement, deposit certificate interest rate, stock and debt seesaw, institutional behavior and so on.

Liquidity tracking

Last week, the open market achieved zero investment and zero withdrawal, of which the treasury cash deposit matured and continued at 70 billion, liquidity was relatively flat before the end of the month, but we need to pay attention to the recent decline in net financing of big banks.

Policy and fundamentals

Industrial profits fell in March, which was announced last week. From the perspective of high-frequency data, infrastructure construction is in a hurry in April, bill interest rates are low, and industrial products still show that the performance of global-priced goods is better than that of domestic-priced goods.

overseas market

The initial value of Q1 GDP in the United States is lower than expected, while the core PCE price index is high. Finally, the 10-year U.S. debt closed at 4.Jiliwelcomebonus.67%, up from 5BP the week before last.

The Prospect of Bond Market Strategy

The recent bond adjustment was triggered by the central bank's continuous warning of the risk of long-term interest rate limits, which was due to the concentrated release of demand for stopping profits accumulated by the rapid downward trend of interest rates, as well as the intensification of "stagflation" worries about the resonance of RMB exchange rate pressure in the first quarter of the United States.JiliwelcomebonusCaused the volatility of the market. From the fluctuation range of 10-year and 30-year treasury bonds, it is basically similar to the decline at the beginning of March.JiliwelcomebonusWe believe that the fundamental state that the real estate cycle is still bottoming out and inflation is weak does not support a sustained rise in interest rates, there is still underallocated demand for capital allocation, the medium-term trend of bonds has not changed, and moderate adjustment will lead to better investment opportunities. In terms of convertible bonds, the valuation of convertible bonds has made a negative contribution in the past 24 years, which is mainly affected by the bear market thinking of equity under the weak aggregate, the game of funds after institutionalization, the impact of liquidity of micro-disk stocks to suppress the value of options and other factors. Under the background of the limited risk in the bond market, the absolute price of convertible bonds has the support of debt bottom, the overall valuation of the market is cost-effective, and the fault tolerance rate of the shock observation period is also high. Pay attention to the follow-up interpretation of policies.

Risk hint: the information in this material comes from the information that has been disclosed, and there is no guarantee for the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information. The views and analysis in this material only represent the views of the company's research team. In any case, the information or opinions expressed in this article do not constitute the actual investment results, nor do they constitute any investment advice and guarantee to the investors. Any media, website or individual shall not be reproduced without the authorization of our company.