Huitong, April 26-Malaysian palm oil futures rebounded on Friday, despite an overall downward trend this week. OutputTexasholdemThe decline and stable domestic demand have supported the rise in prices, while the rise in international oil prices has also contributed to the rebound of palm oil futures.
Despite the overall downward trend this week, Malaysian palm oil futures rebounded on Friday. The decline in production and stable domestic demand have provided support for the rise in prices. at the same time, the rise in international oil prices has also contributed to the recovery of palm oil futures.
The July delivery benchmark palm oil contract (FCPOc3) of the Malaysia Derivatives Exchange closed at 3896 ringgit per metric ton.Texasholdem.63 US dollars), up 22 ringgit, or 0.57%, over the previous trading day. Nevertheless, the contract still showed a decrease of 0.76% from the previous week.
Output and demand analysis
Production may not increase significantly in May as production continues to decline, according to Paramalingam Supramaniam, director of Selangor brokerage firm Pelindung Bestari. However, domestic demand, especially for biodiesel, remained stable. This shows that despite the decline in production, the stability of demand provides some support for the price of palm oil.
Trends of Dalian Futures Market
In Dalian futures market, the main soybean oil futures contract (DBYcv1) fell slightly by 0.03%, while palm oil futures contract (DCPcv1) was flat. Meanwhile, soybean oil futures (BOcv1) rose 0.18% on the Chicago Board of Trade.
Prediction and adjustment of soybean yield
Hot and dry weather during the growing season in northern Argentina may have led the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange to downgrade its forecast for the country's soybean production in 2023, prompting a rise in soybean oil prices.
The relationship between Oil Price and Palm Oil Price
The strength of crude oil futures makes palms a more attractive raw material choice for biodiesel.
Changes in the price of crude oil will directly affect the price of palm oil. When the price of crude oil rises, so will the production cost of palm oil, which leads to a rise in the price of palm oil and a decrease in the price of palm oil. In addition, because palm oil is an alternative to crude oil, when the price of crude oil rises, some consumers may turn to palm oil, resulting in increased demand for palm oil and higher prices.
Therefore, the relationship between palm oil futures and crude oil futures is very close. Investors need to pay close attention to the changes in crude oil prices and the supply and demand of palm oil in the international market to judge the trend of palm oil futures.
Ringgit exchange rate change
The Malaysian ringgit rose 0.19 per cent against the dollar, which could have an impact on the price of palm oil futures denominated in ringgit.
Malaysian palm oil futures rebounded on Friday, but the weekly line still fell. Market participants need to pay attention to multiple factors, including changes in production, stability of domestic demand, international oil prices and exchange rate movements, in order to make more accurate market judgments. With the intensification of competition in the global vegetable oil market, the volatility of palm oil prices may increase. Investors should remain vigilant and pay close attention to market developments.
